National Tsunami Mitigation Program (NTHMP)
Project Status for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM)

BACKGROUND

The Gulf of Mexico states have been included to the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since January 2005. The main purpose of the warning system is to enable local emergency management to act in response to warnings. To plan for the warning response, emergency managers must understand what specific areas within their jurisdictions are threatened by tsunamis. Potential tsunami sources for the GOM are local submarine landslides and earthquakes (induced co-seismic tsunami source) along the Caribbean plate boundary faults. However, preliminary modeling of potential tsunami sources outside the GOM has indicated a very low threat and may not pose a tsunami hazard to the GOM coastal communities or infrastructure. Nevertheless, recent assessments of tsunami hazards along the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) have identified underwater landslides as the primary potential source of tsunami generation. Although a massive underwater landslide in the GOM is considered a potential hazard, the probability of such an event is quite low. The probability of occurrence is related to large ancient landslides which were probably active prior to 7,000 years ago when large quantities of sediments were emptied into the GOM. However, nowadays sediments continue to empty into the GOM mainly from the Mississippi river. The sediment supply contributes to slope steepening and also to the increasing of the excess pore water pressure in the underlying soils, which may lead to further landslide activities. Recent evidence from seismic records of small-scale energetic seismic-waves in the GOM have confirmed that there is a probability of recurrence.

NTHMP-GOM Story

TAMUG-NTHMP Projects Summary: For a Safer Gulf of Mexico Coastline

MODELING AND MAPPING SUBCOMITTEE and WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS

      NTHMP Summer Meeting.  Seattle, PMEL 19-22 AUG/2014

GOM PPT Presentation

ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT

      Period: March to August/2014

Construction of five tsunami inundation maps in the Gulf of Mexico [NA12NWS4670014]

A probabilistic methodology for hazard assessment of tsunami in the Gulf of Mexico [NA13NSW4670018]

TECHNICAL REPORTS

- PORT ARANSAS TX

Horrillo, J., Wood, A., Williams, C. Parambath, A. and Kim, Gyeong-Bo, 2011. Construction of tsunami inundation maps in the Gulf of Mexico, Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA09NWS4670006, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 86 p.

- TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAPS GOM

Horrillo, J., Pampell-Manis, A., Sweetman, B., Sparagowski, C., Parambath, L. and Shigihara, Y. 2015. Construction of Five Additional Tsunami Inundation Maps and A Probabilistic Methodology for Hazard Assessment Generated by Submarine Landslides in the Gulf of Mexico. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA12NWS4670014 and NA13NWS4670018 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 217 p.

Juan J Horrillo,Wei Cheng, Alyssa Pampell-Manis, Jens Figlus, 2016. Implementing NTHMP-MMS Strategic Plan in tsunami hazard mitigation products for the Gulf of Mexico. Tech. Rep. Award Number: NA14NWS4670049 to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Weather Service Program Office, NOAA. 61 p.

TSUNAMI INUNDATION MAP PRODUCTS

  1. South Padre Island, TX
  2. Galveston, TX
  3. Mobile, Al
  4. Panama City, FL
  5. Tampa, FL

DRAFT

  1. Port Aransas, TX
  2. Cape Coral, FL

UNDER DEVELOPMENT

  1. Pensacola Beach, FL
  2. Key West, FL

PUBLICATIONS SUPPORTED BY NTHMP-NWS-NOAA

Alyssa Pampell-Manis, Juan Horrillo & Jens Figlus, 2016. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast. Ocean Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s10236-016-0966-7

L´opez, A., Horrillo, J., Hu´erfano, V., Mercado, A. and Pampell A., 2014. Advanced Tsunami Numerical Simulations of The Puerto Rico October 11, 1918 Mona Passage Tsunami. Pure Appl. Geophys., DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0988-3

Horrillo, J., Grilli S.T, Nicolsky, D., Roeber V. and Zhang J., 2014. Performance Benchmarking Tsunami Models for NTHMPs Inundation Mapping Activities Pure Appl. Geophys., 2014 Springer Basel, DOI 10.1007/s00024-014-0891-y

Horrillo, J., Wood, A., Kim, Gyeong-Bo and Parambath, A., 2013. A Simplified 3-D Navier-Stokes Numerical Model for Landslide-Tsunami: Application to the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 118, 6934-6950, doi:10.1002/2012JC008689