CARIBBEAN HYDROCLIMATE & COFFEE
The limited land area available on Caribbean islands means that annual coffee production in the Caribbean will never rival Central America and Africa. However, available agricultural land, soil, and climate can support both the arabica (prefers high altitudes, with shade) and robusta beans (higher caffeine content, but harsher and bitter flavor), and their value to the fine coffee industry is growing.
The main islands supporting coffee production are Jamaica and Cuba, Hispaniola (Dominican Republic, Haiti), and Puerto Rico, and while only separated by a radius of ~310 miles, these islands span a sharp gradient in mean annual rainfall from 51 inches per year, 55 inches per year, to around 35 inches per year, respectively.
Moist and humid air rises in the equatorial regions of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and its moisture load drops as rain when airmasses make their journey to higher altitudes and latitudes. The air finally descends at subtropical latitudes in an area called the North Atlantic Subtropical High, and this dry air increases regional aridity. In response to anthropogenic CO
2 loading of the atmosphere, the North Atlantic Subtropical High is forecast to expand westward and increase Caribbean aridity this century. For example, the United Nations has estimated that Caribbean losses related to climate change will be $11.2 billion by 2080, with drought alone causing $3.8 billion in losses.
Fragile economies on small island nations like Haiti are just learning to leverage their unique coffee industry, yet are now faced with potentially trying to mitigate these losses in the coming decades. To better understand the behavior of the North Atlantic Subtropical High in the past and future, my team at Texas A&M University at Galveston is investigating how rainfall has changed over thousands of years in the northern Caribbean using geological approaches.
While you may know how Caribbean coffee tastes today, changes in Caribbean rainfall in the coming decades may alter the taste of your favorite Caribbean flavors. Even more reason to take pause, and enjoy a sip of Caribbean coffee today that may taste different in just a few decades.